I hope you are wrong too, but given the slow vaccination roll out and the variant issues, you probably are right. I'm not as convinced your assessment of special programs like the Phuket Sandbox is as accurate, however. I agree that the most desirable option would be to vaccinate everyone all together, and I agree that the needs of local people are more important than foreign tourists or wealthy hotel owners. But as you say, using Thailand as an example, there likely won't be enough vaccine for all Thais until at least mid 2022. If you don't have enough resources to help everyone, isn't one reasonable option to concentrate available resources where they will create the greatest utility? Phuket is a special case in that is easily geographically isolated. It is also different from say Mahasarakham or Suphanburi in that its economy depends far more on foreign tourism, so Phuket locals are suffering disproportionately more. If you could restore even a small portion of your country to something closer to pre-pandemic norms, do so reasonably safely (30 positives out of 13,000 arrivals and all tested multiple times?), and do it in a way that doesn't put the local population at risk or overwhelm local hospitals, why wouldn't you do that? I think the economic benefits to ordinary Thais in Phuket - the money that reaches the hotel desk clerks and noodle sellers - outweighs domestic Thai tourists having to wait a while longer to visit. In this particular case, given the circumstances, I think the benefits are greater than the costs.
There will be am avalanche of vaccines in 2022. There will be two worlds, the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. Vaccinated travelers and fortunate countries will find each other.
There were more deaths in 1919 from the 1918 flu pandemic than in 1918, and there were still cases in 1920. 50 million dead and a much smaller population.
Stuart, I sadly think you might be right (and if you're wrong and it gets better sooner, then great). This pandemic has been worse than anyone could have expected and it keeps defying expectations, such as with Southeast Asia which had been doing relatively well just a few months before. I do shudder to think what this could do to the economies of countries like Thailand and Indonesia which depend a lot on tourism. Thanks for your very good write-ups.
Not often everyone hopes you are wrong Stuart but it is a sad story especially when you consider countries like Thailand and Cambodia had been successful in keeping the virus out for so long compared to Europe and the States
My heart sank when I read the title of your post in my inbox. I fear you are exactly right. Damn it. 😪
I hope you are wrong too, but given the slow vaccination roll out and the variant issues, you probably are right. I'm not as convinced your assessment of special programs like the Phuket Sandbox is as accurate, however. I agree that the most desirable option would be to vaccinate everyone all together, and I agree that the needs of local people are more important than foreign tourists or wealthy hotel owners. But as you say, using Thailand as an example, there likely won't be enough vaccine for all Thais until at least mid 2022. If you don't have enough resources to help everyone, isn't one reasonable option to concentrate available resources where they will create the greatest utility? Phuket is a special case in that is easily geographically isolated. It is also different from say Mahasarakham or Suphanburi in that its economy depends far more on foreign tourism, so Phuket locals are suffering disproportionately more. If you could restore even a small portion of your country to something closer to pre-pandemic norms, do so reasonably safely (30 positives out of 13,000 arrivals and all tested multiple times?), and do it in a way that doesn't put the local population at risk or overwhelm local hospitals, why wouldn't you do that? I think the economic benefits to ordinary Thais in Phuket - the money that reaches the hotel desk clerks and noodle sellers - outweighs domestic Thai tourists having to wait a while longer to visit. In this particular case, given the circumstances, I think the benefits are greater than the costs.
There will be am avalanche of vaccines in 2022. There will be two worlds, the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. Vaccinated travelers and fortunate countries will find each other.
There were more deaths in 1919 from the 1918 flu pandemic than in 1918, and there were still cases in 1920. 50 million dead and a much smaller population.
Stuart, I sadly think you might be right (and if you're wrong and it gets better sooner, then great). This pandemic has been worse than anyone could have expected and it keeps defying expectations, such as with Southeast Asia which had been doing relatively well just a few months before. I do shudder to think what this could do to the economies of countries like Thailand and Indonesia which depend a lot on tourism. Thanks for your very good write-ups.
Not often everyone hopes you are wrong Stuart but it is a sad story especially when you consider countries like Thailand and Cambodia had been successful in keeping the virus out for so long compared to Europe and the States